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Rick Perry’s candidacy is a dead end.

I don’t believe the hype around Rick Perry’s campaign. Recently, Perry has:

He has also:

Before that, he started his political career as … a Democrat.

I understand that a lot of this stuff will appeal to a lot of people on the right. Except … the far right is already spoken for. Ron Paul’s supporters aren’t going to abandon Ron Paul. Nor are Bachmann’s supporters going to quickly abandon Bachmann. Yes, Perry looks more “presidential” than Bachmann (and by “presidential” I mean “white male with grey hair”). But Bachmann’s supporters disproportionately female, disproportionately Evangelical supporters are going to care about that much. They may be looking for Sarah Palin—but more so. Short of Palin endorsing Perry over Bachmann (unlikely), I don’t see a huge swing toward him.

The Republican party recently nominated (comparably moderate) John McCain. As we learned from the backlash Obama has seen, things don’t change that quickly in politics. It’s roughly the same party it was in 2008. Straw poll voters may back the guy who is furthest right. But the actual voters will be much, much more moderate.

One more thing. Rick Perry’s really excited to be from Texas. That’s not the worst place for a Republican candidate to be. But politics are local. The promise to make your state more like Texas will just rub people the wrong way. And a guy running to be, essentially George W. Bush but more so isn’t going to get very far. And, while we’re on the topic of George W. Bush related liabilities, we shouldn’t forget that the Bush/Rove crew have some bad blood with Rick Perry.

None of these things, taken alone, would be a game ender. But taken together? Perry’s chances at the nomination are slim. His chances at the Presidency? Zilch.

  1. silas216 reblogged this from ilyagerner
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  7. thesilentorator reblogged this from ilyagerner and added:
    It’s hard to swallow, but this sounds a lot like how a lot of current presidential campaigns are run now…
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  12. apoplecticskeptic said: let’s hope so… (also, you mean “sHort of Palin endorsing…”, right?)
  13. squashed posted this