So … opinions on marriage are shifting, rapidly. The Supreme Court had hearings today on the Constitutionality of California’s 2008 Proposition 8 that was intended to prevent same-sex couples from marrying. In 2008, Prop 8 passed by an narrow margin. Today it wouldn’t stand a chance.
So that’s incredible. By the time the case gets to the Supreme Court public opinion has shifted so much that the underlying facts are no longer reliable.
Which raises the obvious question: Why would the Supreme Court hear the case now? It’s a hugely controversial issue—and one where the ground is shifting fast. And it’s so politically charged. The current Court is generally conservative, generally wary of looking partisan, and inclined, where possible, to take moderate, not-terribly-disruptive stances.
Nobody knows what the court will do in this case. But … it seems unlikely to me that there will be a resounding decision in either direction. I would expect the ultimate ruling to be a punt on a less substantive issue. Probably standing.