So people will try to read the entrails of tonight’s elections and, however they come out, attribute the mess to Obama. Politico is watching three of them. I can sort of understand how the New Jersey and Virginia governor races could reflect Obama’s star power, even when he’s not on the ballot. But blaming the NY-23 race on Obama is a bit absurd. Nor would it make sense to pretend the result is generalizable.
The district in question is one of those safe Republican districts. Spooked by losses, the NY Republicans nominated Scofazza, who is pretty far left for Republicans. This angered the right wing, who nominated uber conservative Hoffman. The Democrats nominated Owens. Hoffman got a ton of support from out of staters and eventually passed Scofazza in a 3-way match up. Scofazza dropped out and endorsed the Democrat.
So the Republicans should win this one—but they managed to screw up so spectacularly that they don’t even have a candidate. The question is whether a very conservative Republican district would prefer the Conservative Hoffman to the Democrat Owens. [Edit: Ordered Lists has illuminated me on some of the local issues of importance to NY-23.]
So what lessons can be drawn from that either way? If Owens wins, the Republicans threw away a House seat they should have had. If Hoffman wins, the Republicans have lost control of their right-wing. And, unfortunately for the Republicans, the Tea Party will probably think the race means it is nationally viable.
