The Republican Primary is a long way from over
If Mitt Romney manages to convincingly win the South Carolina Primary, he’s pretty well wrapped up the nomination. Florida should be friendlier territory for Romney. And after four consecutive losses, the other candidates (excluding Ron Paul) will have to see the writing on the wall.
The latest poll gives Romney a slight lead in South Carolina over Gingrich. But … there’s a lot of money being dumped in South Carolina—mostly by Newt Gingrich. And Gingrich is not one to hesitate at the thought of burning a few bridges. Additionally, Romney’s support is still coming in at 23.1% of registered (Republican) voters. Those are the sort of numbers that only put you in the lead if the rest of the vote is widely divided.
Of course, Romney will hit back—and Iowa showed how vulnerable Gingrich is to negative ads. If Gingrich and Romney manage to damage each other, my guess is that some of Gingrich’s support will go to Santorum and Romneys support will go to Huntsman. Paul has a pretty solid ground game in most states due to the enthusiasm of his supporters—so he’s likely to tick up in the last minutes as well. (I’m not sure why Rick Perry is still in the race. Maybe he’s dumb.)
Suppose South Carolina ends up something like this:
Gingrich - 23%
Paul - 20%
Romney - 20%
Santorum - 18%
Huntsman - 15%
Perry - 4%
Suddenly Romney looks pretty bad. Gingrich looks possible (and unlike the other candidates, he can make a real bid for Florida). Huntsman looks like he’s still in the race. And we still get to make Santorum jokes. And Ron Paul racks up a few more delegates—which is sort of funny because if one of the other candidates gets a lot stronger toward the end of the race and Romney collapses, it’s vaguely plausible that Paul’s consistently competitive showings could lead to a tortoise-style victory.
Edit: As Zach Vaughn points out, the poll I used was from Insider Advantage, which is … not always that accurate. But it’s the only sufficiently recent poll I’ve got to go on.
