February 2008
“No more yes men and women in the White House, because I’m not gonna be...”
– Barack Obama
Healthcare Mandates
In tonight’s debate, Hillary just said that you need to aim high and insist on universal coverage from the start or you won’t get there. I think she’s wrong. I think you have to assume that your plan is going to get mangled as soon as it goes to college and start with the plan that is likely to come out best. Obama wants to lower premiums. Clinton wants to cap premiums and...
January 2008
February 5 Predictions
I broke the states voting February 5 up into region to see if I can make sense of what will happen. It looks bad for Obama if you only count the biggest states—but if you break it down a bit further, it starts to look okay. Here’s what I get. California, tie [Weight: 1] Tri-State Area (NY, NJ, CT), Clinton [Weight: 1] The Bible South (GA, MO, AL, TN, AR), Obama [Weight: 1] The...
“Phone-banking may be out of your comfort zone—but so is having Hillary as...”
– Carolyn
Where will Edward's supporters go?
That’s sort of the question of the race. On one hand, some of them might be the anti-Clinton vote. That’s likely to go to Obama. Others might be the union vote which is likely to go to Clinton. Still other could be the vote that doesn’t immediately endorse the percieved front-runner, which would go Obama. I could see it split fairly evenly—though I obviously hope it...
On sitting it out
noraleah: [I'm] scared for the nasty divisiveness of the Dems. And utterly unconvinced of Clinton’s electibility. Many [people] may just sit it out.
miss-r: I do think it’s highly counterproductive for Democrat supporters to sit out of the general election simply because their candidate of choice didn’t get up, though.
me: I would sit out or vote third party in a Clinton/Romney election. I'm not invested enough in the democrats to support them even if I don't like their candidate. It might seem counterproductive in the short run--but in the long run, I'd prefer to let both parties know that they'll get my vote when they nominate somebody worth voting for. Record turnouts at primaries don't necessarily mean record turnouts for democrats in the general election.
“[Obama] will be almost automatically a healing factor in the animosity now that...”
– Jimmy Carter He also said, “Obama’s campaign has been extraordinary and titillating for me and my family.” If it titillates Jimmy Carter…actually, I have no idea how to finish this sentence. Internet, a little help here?
Running out of ingredients
I just opened a new bottle of vanilla. Vanilla is one of those foods it feels good to run out of. Flour is another. If you’re out of Coke, chips, or frozen pizza, it’s often a sign that it’s been a bad week, food preparation wise. Things like cheese and cereal are annoying to run out of because they mean an imminent trip to the store. But flour and vanilla indicate that...
Hillary: DNC Should Seat The Michigan And Florida... →
This is extremely frustrating. I would have gained a fair amount of respect for Hillary if this had been done in, say, September. As it is, it was done AFTER the mangled primary vote in Michigan and just before Florida. This article echoes my thoughts more completely.
It's Goodbye Rudy Tuesday
McCain wins Florida, CNN projects - CNN.com (Also, the caption is not my phrase. It’s lifted from a friend of Carolyn’s.)
“The loftiest poetry will not solve these issues. We need a president willing to...”
– Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kerry Kennedy, Kennedys for Clinton Los Angeles Times (Jan. 29, 2008). This quote is fantastic—and I couldn’t disagree with it more. It crystalizes an major methodological split in U.S. politics. It’s sort of a visionary...
“This latest move by Kennedy is so telling about the status of and respect for...”
– The New York chapter of the National Organization of Women Yikes.
Edwards and Obama on "change"
jhn brssndn wrote: I wonder, for example, why it is that John Edwards’ campaign has failed to connect with voters when he is far more explicit about the kind of “change” he offers than Barack Obama has been? I think the “change” mantra got a bit diluted once everybody and their cousin decided to be the candidate for change. Edwards seems like a good guy—and I’ll give him...
“Yes, sugary, fizzy, ultimately doomed to go flat and leave an unpleasant taste.”
– Error Gorilla, who has inspired my new rule for the Internet: Internet Rule #2147: If have something negative, controversial, or cynical to say, back it up with an actual argument. In lieu of a full argument, a link may be provided. Rule #2147, Corollary : Unless explicitly stated otherwise, it...
“It’s easier to be ignorant than informed — easier to be apathetic than reactive.”
– State of the Union - Marco.org Apparently many people think cynicism makes them look cool. It goes well with dark clothing and leaning on things. It also goes well with insecurity and crippling fear of failure. None of the best things in life are cynical.
“Please support Barack Obama. I want, for once, someone I can vote for not...”
– xkcd blag (thanks, AZspot)
Talking to an English PhD student
Me: I'm not sure "nose to the grindstone" is a very nice image.
Carolyn: It's not that you're grinding your nose. It's that if you're a miller you have to be attentive and keep smelling the grain that's coming off the grindstone to make sure it isn't burning otherwise the whole mill might burn down.
A President Like My Father - New York Times →
The link that sent me to this said, “Barack Obama: A President like My Father.” I at first thought it was an Obama quote—but I wasn’t sure why Obama would cast his father as a President. His father was a goat herd who left when he was two. It turns out the article is by Caroline Kennedy, JFK’s daughter.
South Carolina Democratic Primary
Three things you should know if you don’t already: Obama won. By a lot. He had over twice Hillary’s support. You should watch Obama’s victory speech. If you’re at work, go ahead and crank the volume. Somebody might try to yell at you—then they’ll hear the speech and stare in dumbstruck amazement. If Hillary watched the speech, I’d give her a 1 in 3...
“The status quo does not give up that easily.”
– Barack Obama
“It turns out that the 2008 Florida Democratic primary doesn’t count....”
– Dave Barry: Miss Kumquat gets our vote - 01/26/2008 - MiamiHerald.com I recommend the rest of this article. It’s contains perhaps the most entertaining and, in a truthy way, the most accurate explanation of our primary system.
Clinton: Give States Their Delegates - New York... →
She is evil. She’s the only viable candidate on the ballot in Michigan. Even then she only pulls in 55% of the vote. After she wins the functionally uncontested primary, she’s calling for our delegates to be reinstated? Sure, I was angry that the Democrats stripped Michigan of any meaningful primary—but it’s even more ridiculous to strip Michigan of a primary then...
Today's Political News to Watch For
Today is the Democrat’s South Carolina primary. (If you have friends in South Carolina, remind them to vote.) Pay attention to the results. If Obama loses, it’s essentially over for him. (Spoiler: It’s quite unlikely that he loses.) If he wins narrowly and entrance polling is split along race lines, he has an uphill battle. If he wins by a large margin (say, 10-15%), he...
“It is perfectly legitimate to draw comparisons and contrasts. … But I do want to...”
– Either Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton—guess which? They’re getting harder to tell apart.
“I’m not concerned about the voters.”
– Mitt Romney This is taken a bit out of context. On the other hand, I think it fits pretty well into a larger context.
“The endorsement was seen as a blow to both John Edwards — Kerry’s running...”
– CNN Political Ticker: Kerry blasts Bill Clinton for ‘abusing truth’ Wow. Even CNN is getting confused about who is at the head of the Clinton ticket.
“If you want to read books that tackle profound philosophical questions, then the...”
– Clive Thompson’s article “Take the Red Book,” from this month’s Wired. I’ve got to disagree with this one. Science Fiction is indeed a great literature of ideas, but it is in no way the “last great literature of ideas” or even the greatest literature of...
“Barack’s unwavering opposition to the war in Iraq, his outspoken support...”
– Michelle Obama (in a fund raising email) I thought I would put this up to highlight something interesting that’s about to happen in the presidential campaign. It looks like Obama is about to aggressively go after the women-over-40 vote. This is where Hillary is strongest and he is...
WatchAl Gore speaking in support of gay marriage. (I’m remembering now why I didn’t vote for Gore in 2000. Even where I agree with him he seems overscripted but underproduced. Sort of like an infomercial.)
“A sheet of instructions provided by the Clinton campaign to its precinct works...”
– The Obama Campaigns Formal Complaint regarding irregularities in the Nevada caucus At first I thought that the widespread reports of irregularities were attributable to Nevada, but it’s seeming more and more likely that there’s something behind this.
Obama vs Clinton
Bijan Sabet: […] The sad reality is that I’m going to firmly support anyone that wins the nomination for the Democratic party…. But the trouble is that it doesn’t feel like my party at times. marco : The Democratic party has been failing democrats for years. I’ve completely given up on them being able to accomplish anything. My own thoughts: I’ve seen too much failure from the...
Guess which of the Democratic campaigns is...
CNN - Thompson drops out of GOP presidential race →
Thompson is out. It’s not clear who this helps. He was really the only one persuasively running on the Good ‘Ole Boy platform.
Democratic Debate
I’m reading accounts of how the Democratic debate was angry and harmful to both Clinton and Obama. I don’t think they’re right. Sure, Edwards gained a bit by being a bit above the fray—but he’s functionally out anyway. Obama’d been taking serious damage lately from the (inaccurate) perception that he was afraid of or unable to engage in a fight. I see the...
More from the Debate
Hillary: You talked about Ronald Reagan being a transformative political leader. I did not mention his name.
Obama: Your husband did.
Hillary: Well, I'm hear. He's not. And...
Obama: Well, I can't tell who I'm running against sometimes.
“I’d like to send our sincerest apologies for the interruptions to service over...”
– Really truly sorry. « Davidville It’s been a long time since somebody has appologized this sincerely to me for a few hours of interrupted service. I think Tumblr could teach the rest of the Internet a few lessons on not sucking.
“[Bill Clinton] is a tremendous ass….”
– Hillary Clinton For weeks now, Bill Clinton has been going after Obama by truncating quotes or taking them out of context. I thought I’d give it a try. In the interests of full disclosure, I truncated this quote mid-word.
Flag Protection Act of 2005 (co-sponsored by... →
“The law would have outlawed flag burning, and called for a punishment of one year in jail and a fine of $100,000.” This bill apparently never made it out of committee—so the Supreme Court never had to rule on it’s (un)constitutionality.
“These rival conceptions of the Presidency—Clinton as executive, Obama as...”
– The Choice: The New Yorker (Same article—and it’s still worth reading.)
“Obama offers himself as a catalyst by which disenchanted Americans can overcome...”
– The Choice, The New Yorker. Read it. Another notable line in the article: “Similarly, if this campaign is, among other things, a referendum on the current occupant of the White House—as elections at the end of failed Presidencies inevitably are—then its outcome will be determined partly by...
Did Bill Misstep?
For months Bill & Hillary have been doing their good cop/bad cop thing. She’ll stay positive and he’ll go for the suckerpunch. It’s like watching the Russians figureskate during the Olympics. They’re not the guys you want to see win, but you have to concede that they’re good. It’s effective, and it may have cost Obama Nevada. It looks like it will cost...
Nevada Caucuses are Messy →
I’m getting a flood of emails today talking about some of the…irregularities in yesterday’s Nevada Democratic caucus. Some of the Obama people attribute it to the Clintons playing dirty politics. At the same time, the Clintons were leveling accusations of voter intimidation at some of Obama’s supporters. I suspect a fair amount of impropriety happened on both sides. As...
“The division, the stereotypes, the scape-goating, the ease with which we blame...”
– Barack Obama at MLK’s church I think it’s time for us to stop calling a message of hope and reconcilliation vapid fluff and recognize it for the significant policy position it is. The idea of listening to dissenters and trying to bring as many people onto common ground as possible is a...
The Big Super Tuesday Question
Yesterday, I stumbled across a post that accused my tumblelog of having an Obama bias. I prefer the phrase “Obama preference.” I’ve surveyed the field. I like some of the candidates (McCain, maybe Huckabee). I’m ambivalent on some (Edwards, probably Huckabe). I dislike others (Romney, Giuliani, Clinton). And I think Barack Obama is the hope for America. As it is, it...
